Economic Development Scenario

Economic Development Scenario for 2018–2021 (September 2018)

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

Indicators ESA 2010 code 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent B1*g 3,9 3,4 2,8 2,5 2,5
2. Real GDP, million Eur B1*g 35867,0 37077,2 38121,5 39074,9 40053,0
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent B1*g 8,2 6,5 5,5 5,0 5,0
4. Nominal GDP, million Eur B1*g 41858,0 44586,4 47056,9 49401,0 51847,4
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent   4,4 3,1 3,1 2,9 2,9
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent
6. Household consumption expenditure P.3 3,8 4,3 4,3 3,8 3,5
7. Government consumption expenditure P.3 1,0 1,1 1,1 0,9 0,9
8. Gross fixed capital formation P.51 7,3 9,0 5,5 4,9 4,0
9. Exports of goods and services P.6 13,6 5,7 5,1 4,3 4,2
10. Imports of goods and services P.7 12,8 6,0 5,8 5,3 5,0

ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
rate of change, per cent
1. GDP deflator 4,2 3,0 2,6 2,4 2,4
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator 3,6 2,7 2,5 2,5 2,5
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator 3,8 5,0 4,3 4,3 4,3
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator 0,4 2,8 2,8 2,8 2,8
5. Exports of goods and services deflator 4,4 2,8 1,8 1,7 1,7
6. Imports of goods and services deflator 4,0 4,4 1,6 1,8 1,8
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) 3,7 2,7 2,5 2,5 2,5

Table 3. Labour market developments*

Indicators 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. 1354,8 1358,9 1355,2 1350,3 1345,5
2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent -0,5 0,3 -0,3 -0,4 -0,4
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage 7,1 6,3 5,9 5,9 5,9
5. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR 840,4 915,2 983,8 1047,0 1109,9
6. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent 8,6 8,9 7,5 6,4 6,0
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR 10845,2 11846,3 12699,1 13467,2 14223,8
8. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent 9,3 9,2 7,2 6,0 5,6

* The estimates for some of the indicators in this table will differ according to the tax changes that will take effect from 2019. Based on these, the reestimated values are presented in Table 5.

 Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1. USD / EUR exchange rate** 1,130 1,186 1,162 1,162 1,162
2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent* 3,7 3,9 3,9 3,8 3,8
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent** 2,4 2,1 2,0 2,0 2,0
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent 2,3 2,2 2,1 2,1 2,1
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)** 54,8 72,8 71,8 71,8 71,8

Main export markets rate of change is estimated as a weighted average of EU and CIS GDP rates of change. Weight corresponds as a share of Lithuania's exports to these regions
* Technical assumption for 2018-2019 is the world gdp growth rate published by the International Monetary Fund in July 2018; technical assumption for 2020-2021 is the average growth rate of the period of 2017-2019
** Technical assumption published by the European Commission in July 2018

Table 5. Earnings and fund for wages and salaries after tax changes coming into effect in 2019

 Indicators 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR 840,4 915,2 1268,1 1349,6 1430,6
2. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent 8,6 8,9 38,6 6,4 6,0
3. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR 10845,2 11846,3 16369,1 17359,2 18334,5
4. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent 9,3 9,2 38,2 6,0 5,6