Economic Development Scenario

Economic Development Scenario for 2019–2022 (March 2019)

 

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

Indicators ESA 2010 code 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent B1*g 3,4 2,6 2,4 2,3 2,3
2. Real GDP, million Eur B1*g 37199,0 38182,4 39110,4 40018,8 40932,2
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent B1*g 7,0 5,0 4,7 4,5 4,4
4. Nominal GDP, million Eur B1*g 45133,6 47369,1 49609,0 51843,4 54113,3
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent   2,4 2,1 2,3 2,4 2,5
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent
6. Household consumption expenditure P.3 3,9 3,9 3,8 3,5 3,5
7. Government consumption expenditure P.3 0,6 0,9 0,5 0,4 0,4
8. Gross fixed capital formation P.51 6,5 5,5 4,9 4,0 4,0
9. Exports of goods and services P.6 4,9 4,1 4,4 4,3 4,3
10. Imports of goods and services P.7 4,3 5,0 4,8 4,5 4,5

ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts

 

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
rate of change, per cent
1. GDP deflator 3,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2,0
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator 2,4 2,2 2,2 2,1 2,0
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator 5,5 5,1 4,0 4,0 4,0
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator 0,8 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,3
5. Exports of goods and services deflator 3,6 -0,2 1,2 1,2 1,2
6. Imports of goods and services deflator 4,6 -1,2 1,3 1,3 1,3
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) 2,5 2,2 2,2 2,1 2,0

 

Table 3. Labour market developments*

Indicators 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. 1368,4 1375,4 1377,8 1376,6 1374,1
2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent 1,0 0,5 0,2 -0,1 -0,2
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage 6,2 5,9 5,9 5,9 5,9
5. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR 921,4 995,5 1059,5 1121,3 1183,0
6. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent 9,6 8,0 6,4 5,8 5,5
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR 11974,0 13003,6 13863,1 14660,1 15436,7
8. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent 10,4 8,6 6,6 5,7 5,3

*The estimates for some of the indicators in this table will differ according to the tax changes in 2019. Based on these, the reestimated values are presented in Table 5.

 

 Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1. USD / EUR exchange rate** 1,18 1,14 1,14 1,14 1,14
2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent* 3,7 3,5 3,6 3,6 3,6
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent** 1,9 1,5 1,7 1,7 1,7
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent 2,0 1,7 1,9 1,9 1,9
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)** 71,5 61,2 61,2 61,2 61,2

Main export markets rate of change is estimated as a weighted average of EU and CIS GDP rates of change. Weight corresponds as a share of Lithuania's exports to these regions
* Technical assumption published by the International Monetary Fund in January 2019
** Technical assumption published by the European Commission in February 2019

 

Table 5. Earnings and fund for wages and salaries after tax changes in 2019

 Indicators 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR 921,4 1283,2 1365,7 1445,4 1524,8
2. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent 9,6 39,3 6,4 5,8 5,5
3. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR 11974 16762 17869 18897 19898
4. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent 10,4 40,0 6,6 5,7 5,3