Economic Development Scenario

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

Indicators ESA 2010 code 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent B1*g 2,3 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,4
2. Real GDP, million Eur B1*g 34415,1 35339,7 36248,3 37159,6 38051,8
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent B1*g 3,5 5,1 4,4 4,2 4,0
4. Nominal GDP, million Eur B1*g 38631,0 40584,5 42367,4 44162,4 45924,9
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent   0,3 1,9 2,3 2,3 2,3
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent
6. Household consumption expenditure P.3 5,6 3,9 3,6 3,5 3,5
7. Government consumption expenditure P.3 1,3 1,5 1,2 1,0 1,0
8. Gross fixed capital formation P.51 -0,5 5,9 5,4 4,4 4,3
9. Exports of goods and services P.6 2,9 3,8 3,9 4,0 4,0
10. Imports of goods and services P.7 2,6 4,6 4,8 4,2 4,1

ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
rate of change, per cent
1. GDP deflator 1,2 2,3 1,8 1,7 1,6
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator 0,9 3,4 2,7 2,5 2,5
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator 2,9 3,7 3,7 3,7 3,7
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator 0,5 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0
5. Exports of goods and services deflator -1,9 4,4 1,7 1,7 1,7
6. Imports of goods and services deflator -4,3 5,2 2,0 2,0 2,0
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) 0,7 3,4 2,7 2,5 2,5

Table 3. Labour market developments

Indicators 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. 1361,4 1372,3 1376,4 1379,2 1380,5
2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent 2,0 0,8 0,3 0,2 0,1
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage 7,9 7,0 6,4 5,9 5,4
4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR 770,8 822,2 872,4 926,7 984,8
5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent 7,9 6,7 6,1 6,2 6,3
6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR 9892,6 10636,9 11319,7 12049,2 12816,4
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent 8,7 7,5 6,4 6,4 6,4

 Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1. USD / EUR exchange rate 1,107 1,068 1,068 1,068 1,068
2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent 3,0 3,4 3,6 3,6 3,6
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,8 1,8
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent 1,4 1,7 1,8 1,8 1,8
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel) 44,8 56,4 56,9 56,9 56,9

Main export markets rate of change is estimated as a weighted average of EU and CIS GDP rates of change. Weight corresponds as a share of Lithuania's exports to these regions.