BDAR

Economic Development Scenario

Economic Development Scenario for 2021–2024 (March 2021)

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

Indicators ESA 2010 code 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent B1*g -0,8 2,6 3,2 3,2 3,2
2. Real GDP, million Eur B1*g 42942,2 44067,6 45489,2 46934,0 48421,1
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent B1*g 0,0 4,5 5,1 5,1 5,2
4. Nominal GDP, million Eur B1*g 48794,2 50966,3 53564,1 56312,2 59251,0
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent   0,7 1,9 2,3 3,3 3,7
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent
6. Household consumption expenditure P.3 -1,5 2,6 3,2 3,3 3,3
7. Government consumption expenditure P.3 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1
8. Gross fixed capital formation P.51 -0,2 4,6 5,3 5,7 5,7
9. Exports of goods and services P.6 -1,3 4,8 6,7 6,0 6,0
10. Imports of goods and services P.7 -6,0 5,3 7,5 7,4 7,4

ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
rate of change, per cent
1. GDP deflator 0,8 1,8 1,8 1,9 2,0
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator 0,8 1,8 1,8 1,9 2,0
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator 6,6 4,0 2,0 2,0 2,0
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator 1,7 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0
5. Exports of goods and services deflator -4,1 2,8 0,5 1,5 1,5
6. Imports of goods and services deflator -5,5 4,0 0,0 1,3 1,3
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) 1,1 1,8 1,8 1,9 2,0

 

Table 3. Labour market developments

Indicators 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. 1358,1 1368,2 1379,9 1378,3 1370,9
2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent -1,5 0,7 0,9 -0,1 -0,5
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage 8,5 8,5 7,5 6,9 6,5
4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR 1421,2 1495,1 1562,4 1641,2 1730,6
5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent 9,6 5,2 4,5 5,0 5,4
6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR 18572,6 19772,9 20857,1 22005,5 23157,7
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent 7,9 6,5 5,5 5,5 5,2

 

Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
1. USD / EUR exchange rate* 1,14 1,21 1,21 1,21 1,21
2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent* -3,4 5,2 3,8 3,8 3,8
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent* -6,3 3,7 3,9 3,9 3,9
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent -5,8 3,6 3,9 3,9 3,9
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)* 43,4 54,7 52,4 52,4 52,4

* Technical assumption published by the European Commission in February 2021