Economic Development Scenario

Economic Development Scenario for 2020–2023 (March 2020)

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

Indicators

ESA 2010 code

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent

B1*g

3,9

-1,3

2,2

2,2

2,2

2. Real GDP, million Eur

B1*g

42974,5

42403,8

43343,4

44277,9

45251,6

3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent

B1*g

6,8

1,2

4,5

4,2

4,2

4. Nominal GDP, million Eur

B1*g

48339,2

48918,6

51100,7

53238,8

55477,3

5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent

 

3,6

0,7

1,6

2,1

2,5

Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent

6. Household consumption expenditure

P.3

3,2

1,0

2,9

2,9

2,9

7. Government consumption expenditure

P.3

0,7

1,0

0,5

0,5

0,5

8. Gross fixed capital formation

P.51

7,4

1,0

3,7

3,7

3,7

9. Exports of goods and services

P.6

9,3

-2,4

3,4

3,1

3,1

10. Imports of goods and services

P.7

6,7

0,4

3,3

3,4

3,4

ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

rate of change, per cent

1.  GDP deflator

2,8

2,6

2,2

2,0

2,0

2. Household consumption expenditure deflator

2,0

1,8

2,0

2,0

2,0

3. Government consumption expenditure deflator

9,2

5,0

3,0

3,0

3,0

4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator

2,5

1,7

1,7

1,7

1,7

5. Exports of goods and services deflator

0,8

0,3

1,0

1,5

1,5

6. Imports of goods and services deflator

-0,7

-0,3

0,4

1,3

1,3

7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual)

2,2

1,8

2,0

2,0

2,0

 

Table 3. Labour market developments*

Indicators

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou.

1378,4

1351,1

1359,0

1359,6

1355,7

2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent

0,3

-2,0

0,6

0,0

-0,3

3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage

6,3

8,1

7,3

6,8

6,6

5. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR

1296,2

1368,8

1422,5

1486,0

1560,0

6. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent

8,8

5,6

3,9

4,5

5,0

7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR

17204,9

17852,0

19010,1

19903,8

20872,5

8. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent

10,8

3,8

6,5

4,7

4,9

* From 1 January 2019, the rates of the state social insurance contributions paid by the employer and the employee were changed. Gross earnings were indexed 1.289 times.

 Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

1. USD / EUR exchange rate*

1,12

1,11

1,11

1,11

1,11

2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent**

2,9

1,4

3,3

3,3

3,3

3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent**

1,5

-1,1

1,4

1,4

1,4

4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent

1,6

-0,3

1,5

1,5

1,5

5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)***

64,0

56,4

55,6

55,4

55,4

* Technical assumption published by the European Commission in February 2020
** Technical assumption published by international institutions in January-March 2020, MoF evaluation
*** Technical assumption published by the European Central Bank in March 2020
Sources: EC, OECD, ECB, UN, MoF estimations