Projections of Lithuanian Economic Indicators (December 2013)

Vilnius, 13 December. The Ministry of Finance, after assessment of the current status of the Lithuanian economy and the latest development trends, makes corrections to the economic development scenario for 2013. The slowdown of export volumes of the Lithuanian oil products and chemical production in the 3rd quarter of 2013, which is not offset by more rapidly growing investments, recovering construction sector, growing consumption and a positive impact of the Lithuanian Presidency of the EU Council on the economy, is the most important factor giving a presumption of reviewing the GDP perspectives. Therefore, it is presumed that GDP at constant prices will grow by 3.2 % in 2013, i.e. by 0.5 percentage point slower than it was projected in September this year.

At present there is no reason to change the economic development scenario for 2014–2016. In 2014 GDP chain-linked volume growth remains unchanged: in 2014 – 3.4 %, in 2015 – 4.3 %, in 2016 – 4 %, accordingly.The tax base values for 2014 (payroll, final consumption) are not changed, therefore the amended Lithuania’s economic development scenario makes no basis for changing budget projections.

Taking into consideration the recalculated indicators of the Labour Force Survey by the Statistics Lithuania from 2010 (acc. to the 2011 Population and Housing Census data) and the latest trends in 2013, the projections of these indicators are being updated. It projected that this year the unemployment rate will constitute 11.8 % – by 0.3 percentage point more than in the economic development scenario published in September. For subsequent medium-term years the unemployment rate remains unchanged: in 2014–2016 the unemployment rate will keep further decreasing and will make up 10.5 %, 9.8 %and 9,1 %, accordingly.

Due to accelerated growth of wages in the 3rd quarter this year, its projection for 2013 is increased by 0.2 percentage point – up to 5.0 %.Average monthly gross wages projections for 2014–2016 are left unchanged; however in 2014 the growth is projected to be by 0.1 percentage point slower than projected in September this year, due to foreseen higher average monthly gross wages in 2013.

The shaping of the economic development scenario was based on the presumption that the EU will succeed in managing the eurozone financial stability risk, and external environmental, oil price as well as euro and dollar exchange rate fluctuation assumptions are in line with the 2013 Autumn Forecast of the European Commission projecting both the EU and eurozone economic recovery in 2014. The Lithuanian export market perspective in the EU further remains to be the basic economic development scenario change factor.


 

KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 

Indicators

2012

Projection December 2013

2013

2014

2015

2016

GDP growth/chain-linked volume growth, percentage  

3,7

3,2

3,4

4,3

4,0

Average annual change of harmonised indices of consumer prices, per cent

3,2

1,3

1,6

2,2

2,5

Growth of average monthly gross earnings, previous period = 100

103,8

105,0

105,1

105,8

106,5

Average monthly gross earnings, LTL

2123,8

2229,6

2342,7

2479,3

2640,6

Unemployment rate, per cent (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology)

13,4

11,8

10,5

9,8

9,1

Balance of goods and services, percentage share of GDP

0,8

-0,3

-1,9

-1,9

-1,5

Growth of consumption / chain-linked volume  growth, percentage

3,2

4,0

3,9

4,0

4,0

Growth of gross fixed capital formation / chain-linked volume  growth, percentage

-3,6

10,0

10,4

7,0

3,5

GDP at current prices growth, percentage

6,4

4,9

5,6

7,0

6,9

 

ECONOMIC INDICATORS, current prices, LTL mill.

Indicators

2012

Projection December 2013

2013

2014

2015

2016

Final consumption expenditure

91975,7

96802,5

102502,0

108947,3

116137,9

percentage share of GDP

80,9

81,1

81,3

80,8

80,6

nominal growth, percentage

5,6

5,2

5,9

6,3

6,6

Households consumption expenditure

71708,7

75552,8

80551,5

86338,9

92726,8

percentage share of GDP

63,0

63,3

63,9

64,0

64,3

Government consumption expenditure

19996,9

20946,4

21629,3

22267,1

23047,1

percentage share of GDP

17,6

17,6

17,2

16,5

16,0

NPI 1 consumption expenditure

270,0

303,3

321,2

341,4

363,9

percentage share of GDP

0,2

0,3

0,3

0,3

0,3

Gross capital formation

20827,6

22884,6

25987,6

28485,8

30236,6

percentage share of GDP

18,3

19,2

20,6

21,1

21,0

nominal growth, percentage

-8,3

9,9

13,6

9,6

6,1

Balance of trade

931,4

-384,5

-2452,8

-2607,6

-2205,2

percentage share of GDP

0,8

-0,3

-1,9

-1,9

-1,5

Gross domestic product

113734,7

119302,7

126036,7

134825,5

144169,2

nominal growth, percentage

6,4

4,9

5,6

7,0

6,9

Gross domestic product, chain-linked volume

83879,0

86563,1

89513,5

93368,3

97100,9

chain-linked volume  growth, percentage

3,7

3,2

3,4

4,3

4,0

1 - NPI – non-profit institutions

 

LABOUR MARKET, EARNINGS AND PRICES

Indicators

Unit of measure

2012

Projection December 2013

2013

2014

2015

2016

Average monthly gross earnings

LTL

2123,8

2229,6

2342,7

2479,3

2640,6

Indices of the average monthly gross earnings, previous period = 100

 

103,8

105,0

105,1

105,8

106,5

Annual fund for wages and salaries

LTL mill.

25745,0

27237,4

28817,2

30669,4

32772,3

Average annual number of employed persons, acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology

thou.

1275,7

1288,4

1297,3

1304,7

1309,0

o/w: average number of employed persons converted into full-time units

thou.

1010,2

1018,0

1025,1

1030,8

1034,2

Average annual number of economically active population (labour force), acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology

thou.

1472,5

1460,2

1449,0

1445,8

1440,6

Average annual number of the unemployed persons, acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology

thou.

196,8

171,8

151,7

141,2

131,6

Unemployment rate, acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology

per cent

13,4

11,8

10,5

9,8

9,1

Change of harmonised indices of consumer prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

average annual

per cent

3,2

1,3

1,6

2,2

2,5

 
Last updated: 11-09-2019