Economic Development Scenario (March 2019)

Economic Development Scenario for 2019–2022 (March 2019)

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

Indicators	ESA 2010 code	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent	B1*g	3,4	2,6	2,4	2,3	2,3
2. Real GDP, million Eur	B1*g	37199,0	38182,4	39110,4	40018,8	40932,2
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent	B1*g	7,0	5,0	4,7	4,5	4,4
4. Nominal GDP, million Eur	B1*g	45133,6	47369,1	49609,0	51843,4	54113,3
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent		2,4	2,1	2,3	2,4	2,5
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent
6. Household consumption expenditure	P.3	3,9	3,9	3,8	3,5	3,5
7. Government consumption expenditure	P.3	0,6	0,9	0,5	0,4	0,4
8. Gross fixed capital formation	P.51	6,5	5,5	4,9	4,0	4,0
9. Exports of goods and services	P.6	4,9	4,1	4,4	4,3	4,3
10. Imports of goods and services	P.7	4,3	5,0	4,8	4,5	4,5

^{ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts}

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Indicators	rate of change, per cent
1. GDP deflator	3,4	2,3	2,2	2,1	2,0
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator	2,4	2,2	2,2	2,1	2,0
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator	5,5	5,1	4,0	4,0	4,0
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator	0,8	1,3	1,3	1,3	1,3
5. Exports of goods and services deflator	3,6	-0,2	1,2	1,2	1,2
6. Imports of goods and services deflator	4,6	-1,2	1,3	1,3	1,3
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual)	2,5	2,2	2,2	2,1	2,0

Table 3. Labour market developments*

Indicators	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou.	1368,4	1375,4	1377,8	1376,6	1374,1
2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent	1,0	0,5	0,2	-0,1	-0,2
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage	6,2	5,9	5,9	5,9	5,9
5. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR	921,4	995,5	1059,5	1121,3	1183,0
6. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent	9,6	8,0	6,4	5,8	5,5
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR	11974,0	13003,6	13863,1	14660,1	15436,7
8. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent	10,4	8,6	6,6	5,7	5,3

^{*The estimates for some of the indicators in this table will differ according to the tax changes in 2019. Based on these, the reestimated values are presented in Table 5.}

Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
1. USD / EUR exchange rate**	1,18	1,14	1,14	1,14	1,14
2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent*	3,7	3,5	3,6	3,6	3,6
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent**	1,9	1,5	1,7	1,7	1,7
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent	2,0	1,7	1,9	1,9	1,9
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)**	71,5	61,2	61,2	61,2	61,2

^{Main export markets rate of change is estimated as a weighted average of EU and CIS GDP rates of change. Weight corresponds as a share of Lithuania's exports to these regions

* Technical assumption published by the International Monetary Fund in January 2019

** Technical assumption published by the European Commission in February 2019}

Table 5. Earnings and fund for wages and salaries after tax changes in 2019

Indicators	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
1. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR	921,4	1283,2	1365,7	1445,4	1524,8
2. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent	9,6	39,3	6,4	5,8	5,5
3. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR	11974	16762	17869	18897	19898
4. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent	10,4	40,0	6,6	5,7	5,3

Last updated: 11-09-2023

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Economic Development Scenario (March 2019)