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Economic Development Scenario (March 2022)

Economic Development Scenario for 2022–2025 (March 2022)

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

Indicators ESA 2010 code 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent B1*g 4,9 1,6 2,5 3,0 3,0
2. Real GDP, million Eur B1*g 45504,7 46244,2 47401,1 48804,2 50256,7
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent B1*g 11,8 8,9 5,6 5,0 5,0
4. Nominal GDP, million Eur B1*g 55325,6 60223,6 63582,4 66769,1 70123,5
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent   4,1 1,9 2,4 3,3 3,4
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent
6. Household consumption expenditure P.3 7,3 2,1 3,4 3,4 3,4
7. Government consumption expenditure P.3 0,4 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0
8. Gross fixed capital formation P.51 7,0 2,7 4,8 5,4 5,4
9. Exports of goods and services P.6 14,1 -6,0 3,3 3,7 3,7
10. Imports of goods and services P.7 17,0 -6,0 4,1 4,1 4,1

ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
rate of change, per cent
1. GDP deflator 6,5 7,1 3,0 2,0 2,0
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator 4,6 9,8 3,0 2,0 2,0
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator 7,8 12,6 4,1 3,6 3,6
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator 4,8 6,2 2,9 2,4 2,4
5. Exports of goods and services deflator 5,7 5,7 1,3 1,2 1,2
6. Imports of goods and services deflator 12,2 9,1 1,0 1,1 1,2
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) 4,6 9,8 3,0 2,0 2,0

 

Table 3. Labour market developments

Indicators 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. 1368,6 1365,3 1366,7 1362,6 1357,1
2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent 0,8 -0,2 0,1 -0,3 -0,4
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage 7,1 7,3 6,9 6,6 6,3
4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR 1568,0 1706,5 1795,7 1885,5 1979,7
5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent 9,8 8,8 5,2 5,0 5,0
6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR 20928,4 22721,7 23934,2 25055,3 26202,3
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent 12,5 8,6 5,3 4,7 4,6

 

Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
1. USD / EUR exchange rate* 1,18 1,13 1,13 1,13 1,13
2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent* 5,7 3,0 3,8 3,8 3,8
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent* 5,3 3,0 2,8 2,8 2,8
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent 5,2 1,7 2,1 2,4 2,4
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)** 70,8 90,0 81,6 81,6 81,6

* The technical assumption published by the European Commission on 10 February 2022 . The EU and global GDP growth adjusted on 24 February.
** The oil price assumption for 2022-2023 is based on the public information about futures prices available on 1 March 2022.

Last updated: 30-06-2022