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Economic Development Scenario

Economic Development Scenario for 2024–2027 (December 2024)

 

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

IndicatorsESA 2010 code20232024202520262027
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per centB1*g0,32,42,82,92,9
2. Real GDP, million EurB1*g58316,859740,761433,763213,365046,1
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per centB1*g9,45,65,45,75,6
4. Nominal GDP, million EurB1*g73792,877902,482109,086763,891581,3
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent -1,11,02,52,82,9
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent
6. Household consumption expenditureP.3-0,43,33,63,43,4
7. Government consumption expenditureP.3-0,20,80,10,10,1
8. Gross fixed capital formationP.519,3-1,95,25,85,4
9. Exports of goods and servicesP.6-3,41,23,64,24,2
10. Imports of goods and servicesP.7-5,3-0,44,44,94,9

ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts

 

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators20232024202520262027
rate of change, per cent
1. GDP deflator9,03,12,52,72,6
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator9,00,92,52,72,6
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator13,29,610,15,04,5
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator5,52,32,32,32,3
5. Exports of goods and services deflator-0,20,70,41,61,6
6. Imports of goods and services deflator-5,6-1,30,71,71,7
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual)8,70,92,52,72,6

 

Table 3. Labour market developments

Indicators20232024202520262027
1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou.1441,11461,31466,31467,71467,7
2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent1,41,40,30,10,0
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage6,87,47,16,86,5
4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR2013,82217,92393,82556,32702,8
5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent12,610,17,96,85,7
6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR27842,030955,333523,935834,537890,7
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent13,411,28,36,95,7

 

Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators20232024202520262027
1. USD / EUR exchange rate*1,081,091,081,081,08
2. World (excl. EU) GDP, rate of change, per cent*3,73,53,63,63,6
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent*0,40,91,51,81,8
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent1,71,82,22,42,4
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)*82,580,773,171,571,5

* Technical assumption published by the European Commission on 15 November 2024

Last updated: 08-01-2025