Economic Development Scenario

Economic Development Scenario for 2023–2026 (December 2023)

 

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

IndicatorsESA 2010 code20222023202420252026
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per centB1*g2,4-0,41,72,92,9
2. Real GDP, million EurB1*g47304,247133,947935,249315,750741,0
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per centB1*g19,37,04,55,35,3
4. Nominal GDP, million EurB1*g67399,172146,175427,179445,683621,7
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent -1,3-1,41,43,03,1
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent
6. Household consumption expenditureP.32,0-0,83,13,43,4
7. Government consumption expenditureP.30,40,40,00,00,0
8. Gross fixed capital formationP.513,69,03,55,45,4
9. Exports of goods and servicesP.612,2-4,44,55,25,2
10. Imports of goods and servicesP.712,4-4,95,45,85,8

ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts

 

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators20222023202420252026
rate of change, per cent
1. GDP deflator16,57,42,82,42,3
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator18,68,82,82,42,3
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator13,512,710,34,43,7
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator13,65,52,62,42,4
5. Exports of goods and services deflator15,4-0,70,51,21,2
6. Imports of goods and services deflator24,8-6,60,21,31,3
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual)18,98,82,82,42,3

 

Table 3. Labour market developments

Indicators20222023202420252026
1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou.1420,81435,41439,31438,31434,9
2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent3,81,00,3-0,1-0,2
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage5,96,66,66,46,3
4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR1789,02012,62165,42273,92387,0
5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent13,312,57,65,05,0
6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR24542,628060,530272,031766,933266,6
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent16,114,37,94,94,7

 

Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators20222023202420252026
1. USD / EUR exchange rate*1,051,081,061,061,06
2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent*3,33,53,23,53,5
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent*3,40,61,31,71,7
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent3,41,82,12,42,4
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)*100,784,184,579,679,6

* The technical assumption published by the European Commission on 15 November 2023.

Last updated: 08-01-2024