Economic Development Scenario
Economic Development Scenario for 2024–2027 (June 2024)
Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators
| Indicators | ESA 2010 code | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| 1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent | B1*g | -0,3 | 2,1 | 2,9 | 2,9 | 2,9 |
| 2. Real GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 47145,2 | 48130,6 | 49509,8 | 50924,1 | 52384,1 |
| 3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 6,7 | 5,0 | 5,4 | 5,4 | 5,4 |
| 4. Nominal GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 71986,2 | 75559,3 | 79637,1 | 83926,7 | 88468,4 |
| 5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent | -1,7 | 0,7 | 2,6 | 3,0 | 3,2 | |
| Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent | ||||||
| 6. Household consumption expenditure | P.3 | -1,0 | 3,3 | 3,4 | 3,4 | 3,4 |
| 7. Government consumption expenditure | P.3 | 0,2 | 0,5 | 0,1 | 0,1 | 0,1 |
| 8. Gross fixed capital formation | P.51 | 10,6 | 3,5 | 5,4 | 5,4 | 5,4 |
| 9. Exports of goods and services | P.6 | -3,3 | 2,3 | 4,2 | 4,2 | 4,2 |
| 10. Imports of goods and services | P.7 | -4,9 | 2,4 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 |
ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts
Table 2. Price developments
| Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| rate of change, per cent | |||||
| 1. GDP deflator | 7,1 | 2,8 | 2,5 | 2,5 | 2,5 |
| 2. Household consumption expenditure deflator | 8,6 | 1,1 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 |
| 3. Government consumption expenditure deflator | 12,6 | 11,8 | 5,5 | 5,0 | 4,5 |
| 4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator | 5,1 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
| 5. Exports of goods and services deflator | -0,2 | 0,9 | 0,8 | 1,2 | 1,2 |
| 6. Imports of goods and services deflator | -5,6 | -1,5 | 0,2 | 1,3 | 1,3 |
| 7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) | 8,7 | 1,1 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 |
Table 3. Labour market developments
| Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| 1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. | 1441,1 | 1461,2 | 1464,4 | 1462,8 | 1458,4 |
| 2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent | 1,4 | 1,4 | 0,2 | -0,1 | -0,3 |
| 3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage | 6,8 | 7,2 | 6,9 | 6,6 | 6,3 |
| 4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR | 2013,8 | 2206,0 | 2346,5 | 2495,6 | 2632,8 |
| 5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent | 12,6 | 9,5 | 6,4 | 6,4 | 5,5 |
| 6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR | 27842,0 | 30924,7 | 32966,9 | 35021,7 | 36836,2 |
| 7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent | 13,4 | 11,1 | 6,6 | 6,2 | 5,2 |
Table 4. Basic assumptions
| Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| 1. USD / EUR exchange rate* | 1,08 | 1,07 | 1,07 | 1,07 | 1,07 |
| 2. World (excl. EU) GDP, rate of change, per cent* | 3,6 | 3,5 | 3,6 | 3,6 | 3,6 |
| 3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent* | 0,4 | 1,0 | 1,6 | 1,6 | 1,6 |
| 4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent | 1,7 | 1,9 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
| 5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)* | 82,5 | 85,4 | 80,0 | 80,0 | 80,0 |
* The technical assumption published by the European Commission on 15 May 2024.
Last updated: 27-06-2024