Economic Development Scenario (June 2020)

Economic Development Scenario for 2020–2023 (June 2020)

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

Indicators	ESA 2010 code	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent	B1*g	3,9	-7,0	5,9	2,6	2,6
2. Real GDP, million Eur	B1*g	42981,3	39981,4	42331,4	43428,8	44560,8
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent	B1*g	7,0	-5,9	7,7	4,7	4,7
4. Nominal GDP, million Eur	B1*g	48432,8	45590,1	49077,8	51360,8	53756,5
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent		3,6	-4,3	4,7	2,0	2,9
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent
6. Household consumption expenditure	P.3	3,2	-3,7	3,1	2,8	2,8
7. Government consumption expenditure	P.3	0,7	7,6	-7,3	0,5	0,5
8. Gross fixed capital formation	P.51	7,4	-6,0	3,8	3,6	3,6
9. Exports of goods and services	P.6	9,6	-13,5	8,2	5,0	5,0
10. Imports of goods and services	P.7	6,0	-11,6	7,9	5,4	5,5

^{ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts}

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Indicators	rate of change, per cent
1.GDP deflator	3,0	1,2	1,7	2,0	2,0
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator	1,9	0,7	1,7	2,0	2,0
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator	9,6	6,5	3,0	3,0	3,0
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator	2,5	1,0	1,7	1,7	1,7
5. Exports of goods and services deflator	0,8	-3,0	1,7	1,5	1,5
6. Imports of goods and services deflator	-0,7	-6,1	1,6	1,3	1,3
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual)	2,2	0,7	1,7	2,0	2,0

Table 3. Labour market developments*

Indicators	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
1.Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou.	1378,4	1339,8	1354,3	1362,3	1358,1
2.Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent	0,3	-2,8	1,1	0,6	-0,3
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage	6,3	9,5	8,1	7,0	6,6
4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR	1296,4	1319,7	1363,3	1415,1	1478,8
5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent	8,8	1,8	3,3	3,8	4,5
6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR	17216,9	17078,6	17866,5	18689,2	19506,5
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent	10,9	-0,8	4,6	4,6	4,4

^{* From 1 January 2019, the rates of the state social insurance contributions paid by the employer and the employee were changed. Gross earnings were indexed 1.289 times.}

Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
1. USD / EUR exchange rate	1,119	1,092	1,088	1,088	1,088
2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent	2,9	-3,5	5,2	3,0	3,0
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent	1,5	-7,4	6,1	1,5	1,5
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent	1,7	-6,4	5,0	1,4	1,4
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)	64,1	38,4	40,2	40,2	40,2

^{Sources: EC, MoF estimations}

Last updated: 12-11-2023