Economic Development Scenario (June 2023)
Economic Development Scenario for 2023–2026 (June 2023)
Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators
| Indicators | ESA 2010 code | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 1,9 | -1,0 | 2,5 | 3,0 | 3,0 |
| 2. Real GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 46897,6 | 46433,5 | 47610,5 | 49018,9 | 50479,8 |
| 3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 18,9 | 8,3 | 5,2 | 5,3 | 5,3 |
| 4. Nominal GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 66791,1 | 72362,9 | 76129,7 | 80167,9 | 84456,4 |
| 5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent | -1,9 | -0,2 | 2,4 | 2,9 | 3,2 | |
| Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent | ||||||
| 6. Household consumption expenditure | P.3 | 0,5 | 0,0 | 3,4 | 3,4 | 3,4 |
| 7. Government consumption expenditure | P.3 | 0,5 | 0,5 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
| 8. Gross fixed capital formation | P.51 | 2,6 | 6,3 | 4,5 | 5,4 | 5,4 |
| 9. Exports of goods and services | P.6 | 11,9 | -0,7 | 4,5 | 4,9 | 4,9 |
| 10. Imports of goods and services | P.7 | 12,3 | -2,0 | 5,1 | 5,2 | 5,2 |
ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts | ||||||
Table 2. Price developments
| Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| rate of change, per cent | |||||
| 1.GDP deflator | 16,7 | 9,4 | 2,6 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
| 2. Household consumption expenditure deflator | 18,9 | 8,9 | 2,6 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
| 3. Government consumption expenditure deflator | 12,7 | 16,7 | 5,6 | 4,2 | 4,0 |
| 4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator | 13,6 | 4,8 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,4 |
| 5. Exports of goods and services deflator | 15,6 | -1,0 | 0,8 | 1,2 | 1,2 |
| 6. Imports of goods and services deflator | 24,8 | -3,8 | 0,6 | 1,2 | 1,2 |
| 7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) | 18,9 | 8,9 | 2,6 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
Table 3. Labour market developments
| Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| 1.Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. | 1420,8 | 1410,1 | 1411,5 | 1412,8 | 1409,3 |
| 2.Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent | 3,8 | -0,8 | 0,1 | 0,1 | -0,2 |
| 3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage | 5,9 | 7,3 | 6,9 | 6,5 | 6,3 |
| 4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR | 1789,0 | 1975,1 | 2100,2 | 2204,8 | 2315,0 |
| 5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent | 13,3 | 10,4 | 6,3 | 5,0 | 5,0 |
| 6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR | 24542,6 | 27052,7 | 28796,5 | 30257,9 | 31692,1 |
| 7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent | 16,1 | 10,2 | 6,4 | 5,1 | 4,7 |
Table 4. Basic assumptions
| Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| 1. USD / EUR exchange rate* | 1,05 | 1,09 | 1,10 | 1,10 | 1,10 |
| 2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent* | 3,2 | 3,1 | 3,3 | 3,3 | 3,3 |
| 3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent* | 3,5 | 1,0 | 1,7 | 1,7 | 1,7 |
| 4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent | 3,4 | 1,8 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
| 5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)* | 100,7 | 76,3 | 72,1 | 72,1 | 72,1 |
* The technical assumption published by the European Commission on 15 May 2023.
Last updated: 12-11-2023