Economic Development Scenario (March 2018)
Economic Development Scenario for 2018–2021 (March 2018)
Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators
| Indicators | ESA 2010 code | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| 1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 3,8 | 3,2 | 2,8 | 2,5 | 2,5 |
| 2. Real GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 35854,5 | 37001,4 | 38033,1 | 38965,8 | 39935,9 |
| 3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 8,2 | 5,9 | 4,9 | 4,2 | 4,2 |
| 4. Nominal GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 41857,0 | 44327,5 | 46484,6 | 48441,1 | 50490,2 |
| 5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent | 4,4 | 3,7 | 3,3 | 3,0 | 3,0 | |
| Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent | ||||||
| 6. Household consumption expenditure | P.3 | 3,9 | 4,0 | 3,8 | 3,8 | 3,5 |
| 7. Government consumption expenditure | P.3 | 1,2 | 1,1 | 1,0 | 0,9 | 0,9 |
| 8. Gross fixed capital formation | P.51 | 7,3 | 7,6 | 5,3 | 4,8 | 4,0 |
| 9. Exports of goods and services | P.6 | 13,2 | 7,0 | 5,7 | 5,0 | 4,7 |
| 10. Imports of goods and services | P.7 | 12,8 | 7,6 | 6,5 | 5,5 | 5,1 |
ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts
Table 2. Price developments
| Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| rate of change, per cent | |||||
| 1. GDP deflator | 4,3 | 2,6 | 2,0 | 1,7 | 1,7 |
| 2. Household consumption expenditure deflator | 3,8 | 2,9 | 2,4 | 2,5 | 2,5 |
| 3. Government consumption expenditure deflator | 2,9 | 3,0 | 3,0 | 3,0 | 3,0 |
| 4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator | 0,4 | 1,5 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
| 5. Exports of goods and services deflator | 4,4 | 2,3 | 1,3 | 1,7 | 1,7 |
| 6. Imports of goods and services deflator | 4,0 | 2,6 | 1,0 | 1,8 | 1,8 |
| 7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) | 3,7 | 2,9 | 2,4 | 2,5 | 2,5 |
Table 3. Labour market developments
| Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| 1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. | 1354,8 | 1348,8 | 1341,6 | 1334,3 | 1327,1 |
| 2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent | -0,5 | -0,4 | -0,5 | -0,5 | -0,5 |
| 3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage | 7,1 | 6,5 | 6,1 | 5,9 | 5,9 |
| 5. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR | 840,1 | 895,4 | 951,2 | 1008,4 | 1068,8 |
| 6. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent | 8,5 | 6,6 | 6,2 | 6,0 | 6,0 |
| 7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR | 10825,6 | 11487,9 | 12137,0 | 12798,3 | 13491,6 |
| 8. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent | 9,1 | 6,1 | 5,7 | 5,4 | 5,4 |
Table 4. Basic assumptions
| Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| 1. USD / EUR exchange rate | 1,130 | 1,230 | 1,230 | 1,230 | 1,230 |
| 2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent | 3,7 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,8 | 3,8 |
| 3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent | 2,5 | 2,3 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
| 4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent | 2,4 | 2,3 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
| 5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel) | 54,4 | 68,3 | 64,2 | 64,2 | 64,2 |
Main export markets rate of change is estimated as a weighted average of EU and CIS GDP rates of change. Weight corresponds as a share of Lithuania's exports to these regions.
Last updated: 12-11-2023