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Economic Development Scenario (March 2019)

Economic Development Scenario for 2019–2022 (March 2019)

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

IndicatorsESA 2010 code20182019202020212022
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per centB1*g3,42,62,42,32,3
2. Real GDP, million EurB1*g37199,038182,439110,440018,840932,2
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per centB1*g7,05,04,74,54,4
4. Nominal GDP, million EurB1*g45133,647369,149609,051843,454113,3
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent2,42,12,32,42,5
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent
6. Household consumption expenditureP.33,93,93,83,53,5
7. Government consumption expenditureP.30,60,90,50,40,4
8. Gross fixed capital formationP.516,55,54,94,04,0
9. Exports of goods and servicesP.64,94,14,44,34,3
10. Imports of goods and servicesP.74,35,04,84,54,5

ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators20182019202020212022
rate of change, per cent
1. GDP deflator3,42,32,22,12,0
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator2,42,22,22,12,0
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator5,55,14,04,04,0
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator0,81,31,31,31,3
5. Exports of goods and services deflator3,6-0,21,21,21,2
6. Imports of goods and services deflator4,6-1,21,31,31,3
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual)2,52,22,22,12,0

Table 3. Labour market developments*

Indicators20182019202020212022
1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou.1368,41375,41377,81376,61374,1
2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent1,00,50,2-0,1-0,2
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage6,25,95,95,95,9
5. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR921,4995,51059,51121,31183,0
6. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent9,68,06,45,85,5
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR11974,013003,613863,114660,115436,7
8. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent10,48,66,65,75,3

*The estimates for some of the indicators in this table will differ according to the tax changes in 2019. Based on these, the reestimated values are presented in Table 5.

Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators20182019202020212022
1. USD / EUR exchange rate**1,181,141,141,141,14
2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent*3,73,53,63,63,6
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent**1,91,51,71,71,7
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent2,01,71,91,91,9
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)**71,561,261,261,261,2

Main export markets rate of change is estimated as a weighted average of EU and CIS GDP rates of change. Weight corresponds as a share of Lithuania's exports to these regions
* Technical assumption published by the International Monetary Fund in January 2019
** Technical assumption published by the European Commission in February 2019

Table 5. Earnings and fund for wages and salaries after tax changes in 2019

 Indicators20182019202020212022
1. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR921,41283,21365,71445,41524,8
2. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent9,639,36,45,85,5
3. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR1197416762178691889719898
4. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent10,440,06,65,75,3

Last updated: 12-11-2023