Economic Development Scenario (March 2020)
Economic Development Scenario for 2020–2023 (March 2020)
Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators
Indicators | ESA 2010 code | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 3,9 | -1,3 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 |
2. Real GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 42974,5 | 42403,8 | 43343,4 | 44277,9 | 45251,6 |
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 6,8 | 1,2 | 4,5 | 4,2 | 4,2 |
4. Nominal GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 48339,2 | 48918,6 | 51100,7 | 53238,8 | 55477,3 |
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent | 3,6 | 0,7 | 1,6 | 2,1 | 2,5 | |
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent | ||||||
6. Household consumption expenditure | P.3 | 3,2 | 1,0 | 2,9 | 2,9 | 2,9 |
7. Government consumption expenditure | P.3 | 0,7 | 1,0 | 0,5 | 0,5 | 0,5 |
8. Gross fixed capital formation | P.51 | 7,4 | 1,0 | 3,7 | 3,7 | 3,7 |
9. Exports of goods and services | P.6 | 9,3 | -2,4 | 3,4 | 3,1 | 3,1 |
10. Imports of goods and services | P.7 | 6,7 | 0,4 | 3,3 | 3,4 | 3,4 |
ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts
Table 2. Price developments
Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
rate of change, per cent | |||||
1. GDP deflator | 2,8 | 2,6 | 2,2 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator | 2,0 | 1,8 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator | 9,2 | 5,0 | 3,0 | 3,0 | 3,0 |
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator | 2,5 | 1,7 | 1,7 | 1,7 | 1,7 |
5. Exports of goods and services deflator | 0,8 | 0,3 | 1,0 | 1,5 | 1,5 |
6. Imports of goods and services deflator | -0,7 | -0,3 | 0,4 | 1,3 | 1,3 |
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) | 2,2 | 1,8 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
Table 3. Labour market developments*
Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. | 1378,4 | 1351,1 | 1359,0 | 1359,6 | 1355,7 |
2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent | 0,3 | -2,0 | 0,6 | 0,0 | -0,3 |
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage | 6,3 | 8,1 | 7,3 | 6,8 | 6,6 |
5. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR | 1296,2 | 1368,8 | 1422,5 | 1486,0 | 1560,0 |
6. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent | 8,8 | 5,6 | 3,9 | 4,5 | 5,0 |
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR | 17204,9 | 17852,0 | 19010,1 | 19903,8 | 20872,5 |
8. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent | 10,8 | 3,8 | 6,5 | 4,7 | 4,9 |
* From 1 January 2019, the rates of the state social insurance contributions paid by the employer and the employee were changed. Gross earnings were indexed 1.289 times.
Table 4. Basic assumptions
Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
1. USD / EUR exchange rate* | 1,12 | 1,11 | 1,11 | 1,11 | 1,11 |
2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent** | 2,9 | 1,4 | 3,3 | 3,3 | 3,3 |
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent** | 1,5 | -1,1 | 1,4 | 1,4 | 1,4 |
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent | 1,6 | -0,3 | 1,5 | 1,5 | 1,5 |
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)*** | 64,0 | 56,4 | 55,6 | 55,4 | 55,4 |
* Technical assumption published by the European Commission in February 2020
** Technical assumption published by international institutions in January-March 2020, MoF evaluation
*** Technical assumption published by the European Central Bank in March 2020
Sources: EC, OECD, ECB, UN, MoF estimations
Last updated: 12-11-2023