Economic Development Scenario (March 2023)
Economic Development Scenario for 2023–2026 (March 2023)
Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators
| Indicators | ESA 2010 code | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| 1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 1,9 | 0,5 | 3,0 | 3,0 | 3,0 |
| 2. Real GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 46897,7 | 47132,6 | 48547,3 | 50002,1 | 51501,5 |
| 3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 19,1 | 10,3 | 5,3 | 5,1 | 5,1 |
| 4. Nominal GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 66918,2 | 73829,7 | 77779,6 | 81743,8 | 85884,5 |
| 5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent | -1,9 | 1,2 | 3,0 | 3,1 | 3,2 | |
| Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent | ||||||
| 6. Household consumption expenditure | P.3 | 0,5 | 0,5 | 3,4 | 3,4 | 3,4 |
| 7. Government consumption expenditure | P.3 | 0,3 | 0,5 | 0,0 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
| 8. Gross fixed capital formation | P.51 | 2,6 | 2,7 | 5,4 | 5,4 | 5,4 |
| 9. Exports of goods and services | P.6 | 11,3 | 0,0 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 |
| 10. Imports of goods and services | P.7 | 11,1 | 0,3 | 5,2 | 5,2 | 5,2 |
ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts
Table 2. Price developments
| Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| rate of change, per cent | |||||
| 1. GDP deflator | 16,9 | 9,8 | 2,3 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
| 2. Household consumption expenditure deflator | 18,8 | 8,5 | 2,3 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
| 3. Government consumption expenditure deflator | 10,7 | 21,0 | 4,1 | 3,3 | 3,3 |
| 4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator | 13,6 | 5,5 | 2,7 | 2,4 | 2,4 |
| 5. Exports of goods and services deflator | 15,9 | 4,4 | 2,0 | 1,2 | 1,2 |
| 6. Imports of goods and services deflator | 25,1 | 1,0 | 1,5 | 1,1 | 1,1 |
| 7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) | 18,9 | 8,5 | 2,3 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
Table 3. Labour market developments
| Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| 1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. | 1420,8 | 1411,3 | 1411,3 | 1410,4 | 1407,5 |
| 2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent | 3,8 | -0,7 | 0,0 | -0,1 | -0,2 |
| 3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage | 5,9 | 7,0 | 6,8 | 6,5 | 6,3 |
| 4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR | 1785,4 | 1947,7 | 2045,1 | 2147,2 | 2255,1 |
| 5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent | 13,0 | 9,1 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 |
| 6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR | 24562,8 | 26616,9 | 27947,6 | 29324,1 | 30734,2 |
| 7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent | 16,2 | 8,4 | 5,0 | 4,9 | 4,8 |
Table 4. Basic assumptions
| Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| 1. USD / EUR exchange rate* | 1,04 | 1,08 | 1,09 | 1,09 | 1,09 |
| 2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent* | 3,1 | 3,0 | 3,3 | 3,3 | 3,3 |
| 3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent* | 3,5 | 0,8 | 1,6 | 1,6 | 1,6 |
| 4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent** | 3,3 | 1,6 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 |
| 5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)* | 100,7 | 84,8 | 79,9 | 79,9 | 79,9 |
* The technical assumption published by the European Commission on 13 February 2023.
** Main export markets rate of change is estimated as a weighted average of EU and CIS GDP rates of change. Weight corresponds as a share of Lithuania's exports to these regions.
Last updated: 12-11-2023