Economic Development Scenario (March 2024)
Economic Development Scenario for 2024–2027 (March 2024)
Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators
| Indicators | ESA 2010 code | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| 1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent | B1*g | -0,3 | 1,6 | 2,9 | 2,9 | 2,9 |
| 2. Real GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 47142,0 | 47911,3 | 49296,1 | 50722,7 | 52194,9 |
| 3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 6,9 | 5,0 | 5,2 | 5,2 | 5,2 |
| 4. Nominal GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 72047,8 | 75651,0 | 79573,1 | 83701,8 | 88055,8 |
| 5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent | -1,7 | 1,1 | 3,0 | 3,2 | 3,4 | |
| Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent | ||||||
| 6. Household consumption expenditure | P.3 | -1,1 | 3,1 | 3,4 | 3,4 | 3,4 |
| 7. Government consumption expenditure | P.3 | 0,3 | 0,5 | 0,1 | 0,1 | 0,1 |
| 8. Gross fixed capital formation | P.51 | 10,6 | 3,5 | 5,4 | 5,4 | 5,4 |
| 9. Exports of goods and services | P.6 | -4,8 | 3,5 | 5,2 | 5,2 | 5,2 |
| 10. Imports of goods and services | P.7 | -6,6 | 5,2 | 5,5 | 5,5 | 5,5 |
ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts
Table 2. Price developments
| Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| rate of change, per cent | |||||
| 1. GDP deflator | 7,3 | 3,3 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 |
| 2. Household consumption expenditure deflator | 8,6 | 1,9 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 |
| 3. Government consumption expenditure deflator | 12,8 | 10,7 | 5,1 | 3,6 | 3,6 |
| 4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator | 5,1 | 2,0 | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
| 5. Exports of goods and services deflator | -0,2 | -0,1 | 0,8 | 1,2 | 1,2 |
| 6. Imports of goods and services deflator | -5,8 | -2,1 | -0,2 | 1,3 | 1,3 |
| 7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) | 8,7 | 1,9 | 2,2 | 2,2 | 2,2 |
Table 3. Labour market developments
| Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| 1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. | 1441,1 | 1448,1 | 1446,9 | 1442,1 | 1434,7 |
| 2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent | 1,4 | 0,5 | -0,1 | -0,3 | -0,5 |
| 3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage | 6,8 | 6,7 | 6,5 | 6,4 | 6,3 |
| 4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR | 2014,0 | 2187,2 | 2296,3 | 2410,8 | 2531,5 |
| 5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent | 12,6 | 8,6 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 |
| 6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR | 28043,6 | 30602,1 | 32102,3 | 33593,2 | 35092,6 |
| 7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent | 14,3 | 9,1 | 4,9 | 4,6 | 4,5 |
Table 4. Basic assumptions
| Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| 1. USD / EUR exchange rate* | 1,08 | 1,09 | 1,09 | 1,09 | 1,09 |
| 2. World (excl. EU) GDP, rate of change, per cent* | 3,5 | 3,3 | 3,5 | 3,5 | 3,5 |
| 3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent* | 0,5 | 0,9 | 1,7 | 1,7 | 1,7 |
| 4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent | 1,7 | 1,8 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,4 |
| 5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)* | 82,5 | 78,5 | 74,7 | 74,7 | 74,7 |
* The technical assumption published by the European Commission on 15 February 2024.
Last updated: 19-06-2024