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Economic Development Scenario (September 2018)

Economic Development Scenario for 2018–2021 (September 2018)

Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators

IndicatorsESA 2010 code20172018201920202021
1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per centB1*g3,93,42,82,52,5
2. Real GDP, million EurB1*g35867,037077,238121,539074,940053,0
3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per centB1*g8,26,55,55,05,0
4. Nominal GDP, million EurB1*g41858,044586,447056,949401,051847,4
5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent4,43,13,12,92,9
Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent
6. Household consumption expenditureP.33,84,34,33,83,5
7. Government consumption expenditureP.31,01,11,10,90,9
8. Gross fixed capital formationP.517,39,05,54,94,0
9. Exports of goods and servicesP.613,65,75,14,34,2
10. Imports of goods and servicesP.712,86,05,85,35,0

ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts

Table 2. Price developments

Indicators20172018201920202021
rate of change, per cent
1. GDP deflator4,23,02,62,42,4
2. Household consumption expenditure deflator3,62,72,52,52,5
3. Government consumption expenditure deflator3,85,04,34,34,3
4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator0,42,82,82,82,8
5. Exports of goods and services deflator4,42,81,81,71,7
6. Imports of goods and services deflator4,04,41,61,81,8
7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual)3,72,72,52,52,5

Table 3. Labour market developments*

Indicators20172018201920202021
1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou.1354,81358,91355,21350,31345,5
2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent-0,50,3-0,3-0,4-0,4
3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage7,16,35,95,95,9
5. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR840,4915,2983,81047,01109,9
6. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent8,68,97,56,46,0
7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR10845,211846,312699,113467,214223,8
8. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent9,39,27,26,05,6

The estimates for some of the indicators in this table will differ according to the tax changes that will take effect from 2019. Based on these, the reestimated values are presented in Table 5.

Table 4. Basic assumptions

Indicators20172018201920202021
1. USD / EUR exchange rate**1,1301,1861,1621,1621,162
2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent*3,73,93,93,83,8
3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent**2,42,12,02,02,0
4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent2,32,22,12,12,1
5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)**54,872,871,871,871,8

Main export markets rate of change is estimated as a weighted average of EU and CIS GDP rates of change. Weight corresponds as a share of Lithuania's exports to these regions
* Technical assumption for 2018-2019 is the world gdp growth rate published by the International Monetary Fund in July 2018; technical assumption for 2020-2021 is the average growth rate of the period of 2017-2019
** Technical assumption published by the European Commission in July 2018

Table 5. Earnings and fund for wages and salaries after tax changes coming into effect in 2019

 Indicators20172018201920202021
1. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR840,4915,21268,11349,61430,6
2. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent8,68,938,66,46,0
3. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR10845,211846,316369,117359,218334,5
4. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent9,39,238,26,05,6

Last updated: 12-11-2023