Economic Development Scenario (September 2019)
Economic Development Scenario for 2019–2022 (September 2019)
Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators
| Indicators | ESA 2010 code | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| 1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 3,5 | 3,7 | 2,4 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
| 2. Real GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 37216,2 | 38583,7 | 39520,9 | 40446,9 | 41396,3 |
| 3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 6,9 | 7,1 | 5,2 | 4,5 | 4,4 |
| 4. Nominal GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 45113,8 | 48333,1 | 50862,3 | 53128,1 | 55459,0 |
| 5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent | 2,0 | 2,9 | 2,3 | 2,6 | 2,7 | |
| Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent | ||||||
| 6. Household consumption expenditure | P.3 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 3,5 | 3,5 |
| 7. Government consumption expenditure | P.3 | 0,8 | 0,9 | 0,5 | 0,3 | 0,3 |
| 8. Gross fixed capital formation | P.51 | 6,5 | 7,5 | 4,9 | 4,0 | 4,0 |
| 9. Exports of goods and services | P.6 | 5,1 | 4,7 | 3,9 | 3,4 | 3,3 |
| 10. Imports of goods and services | P.7 | 4,3 | 5,1 | 4,0 | 3,0 | 3,0 |
ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts
Table 2. Price developments
| Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| rate of change, per cent | |||||
| 1. GDP deflator | 3,3 | 3,3 | 2,7 | 2,1 | 2,0 |
| 2. Household consumption expenditure deflator | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,3 | 2,1 | 2,0 |
| 3. Government consumption expenditure deflator | 6,8 | 8,0 | 5,0 | 3,0 | 3,0 |
| 4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator | 0,8 | 1,3 | 1,3 | 1,3 | 1,3 |
| 5. Exports of goods and services deflator | 3,5 | 1,3 | 1,2 | 1,6 | 1,6 |
| 6. Imports of goods and services deflator | 4,5 | -0,4 | 0,6 | 1,4 | 1,4 |
| 7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) | 2,5 | 2,4 | 2,3 | 2,1 | 2,0 |
Table 3. Labour market developments*
| Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| 1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. | 1374,7 | 1384,9 | 1386,3 | 1383,0 | 1378,4 |
| 2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent | 1,5 | 0,7 | 0,1 | -0,2 | -0,3 |
| 3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage | 6,1 | 6,0 | 5,9 | 5,9 | 5,9 |
| 5. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR | 924,1 | 1290,0 | 1386,0 | 1466,0 | 1546,9 |
| 6. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent | 10,0 | 8,3 | 7,4 | 5,8 | 5,5 |
| 7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR | 12047,8 | 16943,8 | 18223,2 | 19228,0 | 20221,9 |
| 8. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent | 11,1 | 9,1 | 7,6 | 5,5 | 5,2 |
* From 1 January 2019, the rates of the state social insurance contributions paid by the employer and the employee were changed. Gross earnings were indexed 1.289 times.
Table 4. Basic assumptions
| Indicators | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| 1. USD / EUR exchange rate* | 1,180 | 1,130 | 1,130 | 1,130 | 1,130 |
| 2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent** | 3,6 | 3,2 | 3,5 | 3,5 | 3,5 |
| 3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent* | 2,0 | 1,4 | 1,6 | 1,6 | 1,6 |
| 4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent | 2,2 | 1,5 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 |
| 5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)* | 71,5 | 64,7 | 61,5 | 61,5 | 61,5 |
Main export markets rate of change is estimated as a weighted average of EU and CIS GDP rates of change. Weight corresponds as a share of Lithuania's exports to these regions
* Technical assumption published by the European Commission in July 2019
** Technical assumption published by the International Monetary Fund in July 2019
Last updated: 12-11-2023