Economic Development Scenario (September 2020)
Economic Development Scenario for 2020–2023 (September 2020)
Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators
| Indicators | ESA 2010 code | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| 1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 3,9 | -1,5 | 3,3 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
| 2. Real GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 42981,3 | 42355,2 | 43747,1 | 44772,5 | 45805,3 |
| 3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 7,0 | -0,6 | 5,2 | 4,4 | 4,4 |
| 4. Nominal GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 48432,8 | 48165,5 | 50656,7 | 52884,5 | 55195,4 |
| 5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent | 3,6 | 0,4 | 1,9 | 1,6 | 2,4 | |
| Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent | ||||||
| 6. Household consumption expenditure | P.3 | 3,2 | -3,0 | 2,9 | 2,8 | 2,8 |
| 7. Government consumption expenditure | P.3 | 0,7 | 6,8 | 5,8 | 0,5 | 0,5 |
| 8. Gross fixed capital formation | P.51 | 7,4 | -6,0 | 3,8 | 3,6 | 3,6 |
| 9. Exports of goods and services | P.6 | 9,6 | -7,2 | 7,9 | 4,9 | 4,9 |
| 10. Imports of goods and services | P.7 | 6,0 | -8,4 | 9,4 | 6,0 | 6,0 |
ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts
Table 2. Price developments
| Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| rate of change, per cent | |||||
| 1.GDP deflator | 3,0 | 0,9 | 1,8 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
| 2. Household consumption expenditure deflator | 1,9 | 0,9 | 1,8 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
| 3. Government consumption expenditure deflator | 9,6 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 3,0 | 3,0 |
| 4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator | 2,5 | 1,7 | 1,7 | 1,7 | 1,7 |
| 5. Exports of goods and services deflator | 0,8 | -2,5 | 1,3 | 1,5 | 1,5 |
| 6. Imports of goods and services deflator | -0,7 | -5,6 | 1,1 | 1,3 | 1,3 |
| 7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) | 2,2 | 0,9 | 1,8 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
Table 3. Labour market developments*
| Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| 1.Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. | 1378,4 | 1352,4 | 1370,4 | 1379,9 | 1378,1 |
| 2.Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent | 0,3 | -1,9 | 1,3 | 0,7 | -0,1 |
| 3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage | 6,3 | 8,8 | 7,9 | 7,0 | 6,6 |
| 4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR | 1296,4 | 1380,7 | 1426,2 | 1481,1 | 1548,2 |
| 5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent | 8,8 | 6,5 | 3,3 | 3,8 | 4,5 |
| 6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR | 17216,9 | 18034,7 | 18913,5 | 19813,6 | 20723,1 |
| 7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent | 10,9 | 4,8 | 4,9 | 4,8 | 4,6 |
* From 1 January 2019, the rates of the state social insurance contributions paid by the employer and the employee were changed. Gross earnings were indexed 1.289 times.
Table 4. Basic assumptions
| Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| 1. USD / EUR exchange rate* | 1,12 | 1,11 | 1,12 | 1,12 | 1,12 |
| 2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent** | 2,9 | -4,9 | 5,4 | 3,0 | 3,0 |
| 3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent* | 1,5 | -8,3 | 5,8 | 1,5 | 1,5 |
| 4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent | 1,4 | -7,8 | 5,3 | 1,4 | 1,4 |
| 5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)* | 64,1 | 41,8 | 43,1 | 43,1 | 43,1 |
* Technical assumption published by the European Commission in July 2020
** Technical assumption published by the International Monetary Fund in June 2020
Sources: EC, IMF, MoF estimations
Last updated: 12-11-2023