Economic Development Scenario (September 2021)
Economic Development Scenario for 2021–2024 (September 2021)
Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators
| Indicators | ESA 2010 code | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| 1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent | B1*g | -0,9 | 4,3 | 4,0 | 3,5 | 3,5 |
| 2. Real GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 42920,9 | 44769,5 | 46547,2 | 48172,9 | 49867,0 |
| 3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 0,2 | 9,7 | 6,6 | 5,5 | 5,6 |
| 4. Nominal GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 48929,7 | 53678,8 | 57206,1 | 60376,2 | 63742,3 |
| 5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent | 0,6 | 3,9 | 3,0 | 3,2 | 3,8 | |
| Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent | ||||||
| 6. Household consumption expenditure | P.3 | -2,0 | 5,4 | 3,8 | 3,9 | 3,9 |
| 7. Government consumption expenditure | P.3 | 0,6 | 0,3 | 0,1 | 0,1 | 0,1 |
| 8. Gross fixed capital formation | P.51 | -0,2 | 13,4 | 7,5 | 8,0 | 8,0 |
| 9. Exports of goods and services | P.6 | 0,0 | 11,1 | 6,2 | 6,0 | 6,0 |
| 10. Imports of goods and services | P.7 | -5,3 | 14,2 | 7,4 | 7,7 | 7,7 |
ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts
Table 2. Price developments
| Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| rate of change, per cent | |||||
| 1. GDP deflator | 1,1 | 5,2 | 2,5 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
| 2. Household consumption expenditure deflator | 0,8 | 3,4 | 2,5 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
| 3. Government consumption expenditure deflator | 10,2 | 8,5 | 4,2 | 4,5 | 5,1 |
| 4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator | 1,7 | 3,9 | 3,0 | 3,0 | 3,0 |
| 5. Exports of goods and services deflator | -4,1 | 3,8 | 1,5 | 1,2 | 1,2 |
| 6. Imports of goods and services deflator | -5,6 | 8,7 | 1,6 | 0,9 | 1,0 |
| 7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) | 1,1 | 3,4 | 2,5 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
Table 3. Labour market developments
| Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| 1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. | 1358,1 | 1363,3 | 1375,8 | 1379,1 | 1374,8 |
| 2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent | -1,5 | 0,4 | 0,9 | 0,2 | -0,3 |
| 3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage | 8,5 | 7,4 | 6,7 | 6,2 | 5,8 |
| 4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR | 1428,6 | 1557,8 | 1681,9 | 1773,8 | 1871,5 |
| 5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent | 10,2 | 9,0 | 8,0 | 5,5 | 5,5 |
| 6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR | 18602,8 | 20362,0 | 22186,2 | 23454,5 | 24669,4 |
| 7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent | 8,0 | 9,5 | 9,0 | 5,7 | 5,2 |
Table 4. Basic assumptions
| Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| 1. USD / EUR exchange rate* | 1,14 | 1,20 | 1,20 | 1,20 | 1,20 |
| 2. World GDP, rate of change, per cent* | -3,4 | 5,6 | 4,3 | 4,3 | 4,3 |
| 3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent* | -6,1 | 4,2 | 4,4 | 4,4 | 4,4 |
| 4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent | -5,5 | 3,9 | 4,0 | 4,0 | 4,0 |
| 5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)* | 43,4 | 68,7 | 68,3 | 68,3 | 68,3 |
* Technical assumption published by the European Commission in July 2021
Last updated: 12-11-2023