Economic Development Scenario (September 2024)
Economic Development Scenario for 2024–2027 (September 2024)
Table 1. Key macroeconomic indicators
| Indicators | ESA 2010 code | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| 1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rate of change, per cent | B1*g | -0,3 | 2,3 | 2,9 | 2,9 | 2,9 |
| 2. Real GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 47145,2 | 48210,8 | 49606,6 | 51042,9 | 52520,2 |
| 3. Nominal GDP, rate of change, per cent | B1*g | 6,7 | 5,5 | 5,4 | 5,7 | 5,5 |
| 4. Nominal GDP, million Eur | B1*g | 71986,2 | 75973,4 | 80100,4 | 84640,9 | 89337,7 |
| 5. Labour productivity (real GDP per one employed person), rate of change, per cent | -1,7 | 0,8 | 2,6 | 2,9 | 3,2 | |
| Real GDP components, rate of change, per cent | ||||||
| 6. Household consumption expenditure | P.3 | -1,0 | 3,3 | 3,6 | 3,4 | 3,4 |
| 7. Government consumption expenditure | P.3 | 0,2 | 0,5 | 0,1 | 0,1 | 0,1 |
| 8. Gross fixed capital formation | P.51 | 10,6 | 1,1 | 5,6 | 5,8 | 5,4 |
| 9. Exports of goods and services | P.6 | -3,3 | 1,2 | 3,9 | 4,2 | 4,2 |
| 10. Imports of goods and services | P.7 | -4,9 | 0,3 | 4,7 | 4,9 | 4,9 |
ESA – The European System of National and Regional Accounts
Table 2. Price developments
| Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| rate of change, per cent | |||||
| 1. GDP deflator | 7,1 | 3,2 | 2,5 | 2,7 | 2,6 |
| 2. Household consumption expenditure deflator | 8,6 | 1,0 | 2,5 | 2,7 | 2,6 |
| 3. Government consumption expenditure deflator | 12,6 | 10,7 | 7,3 | 5,2 | 4,5 |
| 4. Gross fixed capital formation deflator | 5,1 | 2,7 | 2,5 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
| 5. Exports of goods and services deflator | -0,2 | 1,0 | 1,1 | 1,5 | 1,5 |
| 6. Imports of goods and services deflator | -5,6 | -1,2 | 0,8 | 1,7 | 1,7 |
| 7. Harmonised index of consumer prices (average annual) | 8,7 | 1,0 | 2,5 | 2,7 | 2,6 |
Table 3. Labour market developments
| Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| 1. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), thou. | 1441,1 | 1461,8 | 1465,3 | 1465,8 | 1461,4 |
| 2. Number of employed persons (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), rate of change, per cent | 1,4 | 1,4 | 0,2 | 0,0 | -0,3 |
| 3. Unemployment rate (acc. to Labour Force Survey methodology), percentage | 6,8 | 7,3 | 7,1 | 6,7 | 6,4 |
| 4. Average monthly gross earnings, EUR | 2013,8 | 2217,1 | 2385,6 | 2541,6 | 2682,0 |
| 5. Average monthly gross earnings, rate of change, per cent | 12,6 | 10,1 | 7,6 | 6,5 | 5,5 |
| 6. Annual fund for wages and salaries, million EUR | 27842,0 | 31080,2 | 33523,4 | 35725,7 | 37585,3 |
| 7. Annual fund for wages and salaries, rate of change, per cent | 13,4 | 11,6 | 7,9 | 6,6 | 5,2 |
Table 4. Basic assumptions
| Indicators | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| 1. USD / EUR exchange rate* | 1,08 | 1,08 | 1,08 | 1,08 | 1,08 |
| 2. World (excl. EU) GDP, rate of change, per cent** | 3,8 | 3,5 | 3,6 | 3,6 | 3,6 |
| 3. EU GDP, rate of change, per cent*** | 0,6 | 1,2 | 1,8 | 1,8 | 1,8 |
| 4. Main export markets, rate of change, per cent**** | 1,8 | 2,0 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,4 |
| 5. Oil prices (Brent, USD / barrel)***** | 82,5 | 81,6 | 76,2 | 76,2 | 76,2 |
* Technical assumption published by the European Central Bank in June 2024
** International Monetary Fund (July 2024), Ministry of Finance calculations
*** International Monetary Fund (July 2024)
**** Ministry of Finance calculations
***** European Commission (May 2024), Macrobond, Ministry of Finance calculations. Calculations based on the arithmetic average of the last 10 days of futures prices published on 21 August 2024
Last updated: 17-09-2024