Moody’s Investment Service assessed Lithuania‘s economic outlook
The international credit rating agency Moody’s Investment Service published a report on Lithuania on Tuesday evening assessing the country’s economic outlook. Among Lithuania's strengths, the agency lists moderate, albeit increasing debt level, dynamic and flexible economy.
Moody’s analysts view Lithuania’s situation as stable, therefore, the decision was made not to change the country’s current ‘A2’ long-term credit rating (stable outlook) and to publish only a report on Lithuania, assessing the country’s economic outlook.
Among the factors supporting Lithuania’s credit rating, Moody’s singles out moderate, albeit increasing level of public debt, sound institutions, consistent structural reforms, a diversified industry and an export structure supported by a dynamic and flexible economy. According to the agency's analysts, the average strength of the Lithuanian economy is determined by stable long-term growth, high income per capita and the transition to higher-value services and high-tech production.
In the Moody’s report, experts note that Lithuania still has very good debt servicing capacity, although it is gradually weakening. In the medium term, Lithuania is expected to take additional measures to consolidate public finances, allowing for the sustainable financing of structurally rising defence spending exceeding 5% of GDP.
However, these benefits are offset by Lithuania's small and open economy and unfavourable demographic trends, slowing long-term GDP growth and increasing public expenditure related to ageing society. Moody’s forecasts that these factors will slow down long-term economic growth to approximately 2% in early 2030.
Moreover, high geopolitical risks remain due to Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and the reduced US involvement in ensuring European security. However, the agency's baseline scenario does not foresee a military conflict between NATO and Russia.
Moody’s last improvement in Lithuania’s credit ratings was in February 2021, when the ‘A3’ (positive outlook) long-term credit rating issued in 2015 was upgraded to ‘A2’ (stable outlook). You can find the latest credit rating report here.
At the beginning of October, the international credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS reconfirmed the ‘A’ (high) long-term credit rating previously issued to Lithuania with a stable outlook. Morningstar DBRS last changed Lithuania’s long-term credit rating in November 2021 from ‘A’ to ‘A’ (high) with a stable rating outlook.
At the end of May, another international credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings maintained long-term credit rating ‘A’ with a stable outlook previously issued to Lithuania.
At the end of April, after a positive assessment of Lithuania’s economic situation, the international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, after a 6-year break, upgraded the country’s credit rating from ‘A’ to ‘A+’ with a stable outlook. This credit rating issued by Fitch Ratings for Lithuania is currently the highest among the three main agencies' long-term credit ratings granted to our country.
More information about Lithuania's credit ratings can be found here.
Additional information:
A credit rating is an indicator that provides investors (creditors) with concentrated information on the degree of ability of the borrower to meet its financial obligations. A high credit rating indicates a lower risk of default by the debtor/issuer and, accordingly, a lower cost of borrowing.
They use specific classifications and symbols to express credit ratings and determine the credit value for borrowing countries and companies by using standardised credit ratings.
Last updated: 21-10-2026