Morningstar DBRS maintained Lithuania's credit rating and outlook
On Friday evening, the international credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS reconfirmed the long-term debt rating ‘A (high)’ with a stable outlook previously granted to Lithuania.
A stable outlook reflects Morningstar DBRS’s view that Lithuania’s prudent fiscal policy and a low public debt level serve to mitigate the risks stemming from possible higher fiscal deficit in the short term. The agency observes that real GDP grew by 2.9% in 2025 mainly due to robust domestic demand. The growth is projected to accelerate to 3.1% in 2026 and to slow down to 2.0% in 2027. Morningstar DBRS analysts believe that economic development will be further supported by strong consumption and active investment, but protracted geopolitical tensions that keep energy prices high for a long time, according to experts, pose a downside risk to growth prospects.
The Government expects the fiscal deficit to increase from 1.8% of GDP in 2025 to approximately 3% of GDP in 2026–2028. This increase is mainly driven by rising defence and social spending. According to analysts, although the general government debt-to-GDP ratio will increase over the forecast period, it should remain moderate. Morningstar DBRS expects Lithuania to further pursue a policy aligned with the fiscal rules of the European Union (EU) and to introduce additional fiscal corrections in the medium term amid growing budgetary pressures.
The credit rating is based on Lithuania's membership of the EU and the euro area, strong political institutions and effective policy making, as well as good fiscal performance and a low debt level. Morningstar DBRS experts note that Lithuania’s economy is small and open, therefore, it is more vulnerable, but on the other hand, the country’s export sector is large, strongly integrated into key regional supply chains.
Lithuania’s long-term debt rating was last upgraded by Morningstar DBRS in November 2021 from ‘A’ to ‘A (high)’ with a stable rating outlook. The latest report of the agency can be found here.
In November last year, Lithuania’s previous rating ‘A’ with a stable outlook was confirmed by credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings. The analysts of the agency assessed Lithuania's situation as stable, therefore, a decision was taken not to change the country's credit rating ‘A’ (stable outlook) granted in 2024, while leaving a valid short-term debt rating ‘A-1’ and only publishing a report on Lithuania assessing the country's economic outlook.
The credit rating agency Fitch Ratings confirmed a credit rating ‘A’ with a stable outlook granted to Lithuania at the end of October last year. The agency’s last upgrade of Lithuania’s debt ratings was in January 2020, when the long-term debt rating was upgraded from ‘A-’ to ‘A’.
At the beginning of October last year, Moody’s Investment Service announced the completion of the periodic review of Lithuania’s credit rating and provided an assessment of Lithuania’s economic outlook. Moody’s last upgrade of Lithuania’s credit ratings was in February 2021, when the long-term borrowing rating ‘A3’ (positive outlook) issued in 2015 was upgraded to ‘A2’ (stable outlook).
More information about Lithuania's credit ratings can be found here.
Additional information:
A credit rating is an indicator that provides investors (creditors) with concentrated information on the degree of ability of the borrower to meet its financial obligations. A high credit rating indicates a lower risk of default by the debtor/issuer and, accordingly, a lower cost of borrowing.
They use specific classifications and symbols to express credit ratings and determine the credit value for borrowing countries and companies by using standardised credit ratings.
Last updated: 15-04-2026
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